Tag: Expectations

The Grinch — Christmas Will Be 3 Times Bigger

The increasing commercialism of Christmas can be used to illustrate the concept of inflation. In The Grinch, one of the Whos shows the Grinch a new flyer that the mayor is anticipating that Christmas in Whoville will be three times bigger than last year! In a similar manner, inflation can devalue money and cause people to spend an increasing amount of money each year to keep up with the past. A specific set of Christmas decorations won’t be valuable as the previous year since everyone is expected to do things three times bigger this year.

Thanks to Mandy Mandzik for the clip recommendation. Check out her working paper, All I Want for Christmas is an A on My Econ Final: A Holiday-Themed Review Class, for more Christmas-themed economics examples.

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How the Grinch Stole Christmas — Extreme Decorating

The increasing commercialism of Christmas can be used to illustrate the concept of inflation. In The Grinch Who Stole Christmas, the Whos engage in a yearly competition to have the best Christmas light display. Each year the neighbors attempt to outdo each other with bigger and more extravagant displays. In a similar manner, inflation can devalue money and cause people to spend an increasing amount of money each year to keep up with the past. A specific length of Christmas lights isn’t as valuable the next year as it was the year before and neighbors will have to spend more and more to remain competitive.

Thanks to Mandy Mandzik for the clip recommendation. Check out her working paper, All I Want for Christmas is an A on My Econ Final: A Holiday-Themed Review Class, for more Christmas-themed economics examples.

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Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone — Not Enough Presents

Harry Potter’s spoiled cousin Dudley Dursley is upset that he received fewer presents for his birthday than last year. Instead of holding firm, Dudley’s parents decide to increase the number of presents to make up for Dudley’s disappointment. Similar to inflationary pressure seen across a broader economy, Dudley’s gifts seem to lose value over time and only an increasing number of gifts will satisfy him. There’s an expectation that each year Dudley will receive more gifts than the year before.

Thanks to Amanda Mandzik for this clip suggestion and summary!

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Life in Pieces — Discounts & Sunk Costs

 

Tim tries to host a guys night and things don’t seem to be going his way. Beyond the awkwardness of just the two of them, the big pay per view fight lasts only a couple of seconds. While the two did get to watch the fight, which had a knockout, it wasn’t quite worth the hundred dollars they paid. Tim notes that he may be able to turn it off and get his money back. With a lot of experience goods, it’s not necessarily the actual outcome of the action that people care about. Tim and Matt did see a fight, so why is he so focused on getting his money back?

A second quick econ line occurs later when they sit down for dinner. Even though Tim isn’t eating any tacos, he notes that the cook is cheaper since he expects Matt to eat 25 or 26 tacos. This form of bulk discounting represents second degree price discrimination. With this pricing mechanism, the hope is to induce customers to purchase more than they would have (law of demand) even though making an additional taco doesn’t have the added cost of another cook.

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Brooklyn 99 — Monty Hall Problem

 

Kevin and Ray haven’t seen each other in a while because of their scheduled change and come to a disagreement on the famous Monty Hall problem. Captain Holt believes the probabilities should only be 50/50 since there are two doors remaining, but Kevin, correctly, informs him the odds are 1/3 that you selected the correct initially and 2/3rds that it’s in the other door. The Monty Hall problem has also been covered in the movie 21 and the TV show Numb3rs.

Thanks to James Tierney for the recommendation:

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Young Sheldon — Go for it!

Young Sheldon teaches his family about the statistics behind going for it on 4th down. A lot of football fans believe you just have to punt, but studies by economists like David Romer show that it’s often better to go for it on 4th down than to punt. The famous Pulaski Academy coach who never punts became a bit hit after being interviewed by ESPN. The NY Times even created a Twitter bot that would tweet about whether teams should punt or go for it and the bot tweets during NFL games.

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Numb3rs: Monty Hall Problem

Charlie teaches his class “Math for Non-Mathematicians” the Monty Hall problem, where a game show contestant must decide whether to change their minds if given the option of 3 cards.

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